Russian forces in the Mediterranean - Wk50/2024

Task Force Composition
As reported by OSINT at the morning of Dec-14


Weekly Brief
The Russian Mediterranean Task Force spend the past week in a holding pattern near the Syrian territorial waters at Tartus. This holding pattern confirms rumors at the beginning of the week that the Russians were negotiating with the Syrian Rebels to continue a Russian military presence in Latakia province. However, as of the second half of the week, there are signs that these negotiations have failed and that Russia is starting to evacuate form Syria.
Additional air transports are rumored to start flying Russian military equipment out of Syria. At the same time, the weapon runners Sparta and Ursa Major have left Russia and are heading, according to their AIS, to Port Said and Vladivostok respectively. We can expect both vessels to make a last moment  change and head to Tartus to load up Russian military equipment. Satellite imagery shows a build up of bulk storage at the former Russian military dock at Tartus.
Also possibly heading towards Tartus is the Ropucha class landing vessel Alexandr Shabalin which left the Baltic Sea on December 10th. Ropucha class landing vessels were used in the past to transport heavy military equipment to and from Syria.

Observations of nearby possible alternatives for a Russian naval base have not yet shown any preparations in basing Russian warships.

Frigate Admiral Gorshkov and fleet oiler Yelnya have not been observed for over a week, indicating both vessels are heading towards the Strait of Gibraltar and returning back to the Northern Fleet.

Daily Events
December 09
Satellite imagery places the vessels of the task force outside of Tartus at ranges between 8 to 13km from the port [1]

December 11
Coastal observations show the Improved Kilo class submarine Novorossiysk, fleet oiler Vyazma and intelligence collection vessel Kildin near Tartus [2].

December 12
Satellite imagery places the vessels of the task force beyond the 15km radius of Tartus and at a larger dispersion then previously observed [3]


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