Russia's Dnieper River Flotilla

On March 20th, 2024; Russia's Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of a so-called Dnieper Flotilla with a brigade of river boats by the end of 2024 [1]. The exact size and composition of the flotilla was not disclosed at this point, leaving a lot of room for speculation.
At this point the declaration to create a Dnieper Flotilla fits within Russia's plans to expand its military organization and further cement its presence in Ukraine and dominance of the Black Sea. 

Naval units and tactics
Current publications indicate that the Dnieper Flotilla will be equipped with smaller craft operated by Russia's naval forces such as assault and patrol boats and will not include larger vessels such as corvettes or patrol craft such as the Bykov class.
Assault and patrol boats can give the Dnieper Flotilla the necessary maneuverability in the maritime domain to protect the entrance of the Dnieper River as well as patrol the approaches of Crimea.

120 Nautical Mile range from the Kinburn Split


o far, Russian media did not mention the location from which the Dnieper Flotilla would operate from or if a specialized base will be constructed to accommodate it.
Should the Dnieper Flotilla operate from a general area where the Dnieper River flows in the Black Sea, the flotilla would be in position to protect and safeguard the approaches towards the Crimea and interdict Ukrainian USV operations which are normally launched from Odessa. Previous Ukrainian attacks with Magura-V5 maritime drones at the beginning of 2024 already claimed three Russian vessels sunk including a missile boat out the Tarantul class and a patrol boat of the Bykov class.
The larger vessels of the Black Sea Fleet lack the maneuverability to avoid Ukrainian drones as well as the capability of firing downwards with the main weapon systems once the drones have entered the minimum range.

Assault an patrol craft sit lower in the water and as such can engage the Magura-V5 drones at closer ranges while having speed and maneuverability to try and avoid incoming attacks. 
The Dnieper Flotilla will be able to interdict and prevent Ukrainian drone attacks against the Crimea. The goal will most likely be to force the Ukrainian drones to avoid the region where the Dnieper Flotilla patrols and take a longer route heading towards Crimea.
The longer route will decrease the range of the Magura-V5 drone and will make it doubtful if it can strike targets near Feodosia. The longer route will most likely not impede the control over the maritime drones as Ukraine has been able to operate them with real time telemetry in areas as far as Feodosia.

Raptor Class assault boats
Raptor class assault boats are typically used for amphibious raids and the fast insertion and extraction of small teams. Given the tasks mentioned, these boats will most likely be assigned to the Dnieper Flotilla for patrol and amphibious raids. With a speed of 24 knots and a range of 240 nautical miles with a speed of 20 knots, these boats are able to patrol large areas in good time and have a long endurance to remain on station.
These boats are armed with a variety of weapons such as the 7,62 mm 6P41 Pecheneg light machine gun and a 12.7 mm Kord heavy machinegun. Raptor boats can also carry eight 9M113 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles.
Their speed, maneuverability and armament allow the Raptor boats to be an effective counter against Ukrainian maritime drones.


 
Shmell class gunboat
Older but more heavily armed then the Raptor class are the gunboats of the Shmell class. Commissioned between 1967 and 1972, only a handful of these boats remain in service with the Russian Navy. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, several of the remaining Shmell class gunboats were transferred to the Black Sea from the Caspian Sea. Presumed to be used as support vessels for Russian troops advancing along the Azov Sea coastline, these boats did not yet see any combat according to information available by OSINT sources.
Speed and range are reported as similar to the Raptor class assault boats. 
Armaments include a 76 mm D-56TS canon with 150 rounds, a 140 mm BM-14-17 rocket launcher, four 30 mm BP-30 Plamya grenade launchers, two 14,5mm machine guns and one 7,62mm light machine gun. 


Coastal artillery and Naval Infantry support
The Dnieper Flotilla will be further strengthened by coastal artillery and a Naval Infantry formation [2]. The coastal artillery will include the wheeled 130mm A-222 "Bereg" self-propelled artillery gun capable of hitting targets moving with speeds of 185km/h according to Russian sources. The artillery guns will be used to engaged enemy motor boats and landing craft.
Russia only operates 36 Bereg self-propelled artillery guns which would be enough to form two artillery regiments of 18 pieces each. While this is the theoretical upper limit it seems more likely that Russia will operate only a singe artillery regiment with having the remaining artillery guns in reserve for spare parts.

According to military expert Captain 1st Rank Vasily Dandykin, the Dnieper flotilla will comprise river minesweepers, assault boats and landing craft. The Naval Infantry unit will most likely be a separate battalion sized unit. 
Being a separate unit, the naval infantry attached to the Dnieper Flotilla will presumably fall outside the command structure of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade based in the Crimea. Its tasks will vary from coastal defense to amphibious raids.



Popular posts from this blog

The Russian Navy and the fall of Tartus

With the fall of the Al-Assad regime in Syria, the Syrian rebels allegedly gave Russia 48 hours to vacate their military presence in the naval base at Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase. It seems unlikely that Russia can broker a diplomatic deal to remain present in Tartus. It is expected that Russia will have to vacate its naval presence somewhere at the beginning of week 50. As such, the Russian Navy will now have to look what options, if any, it has to maintain some sort of maritime presence in the Mediterranean. Why Tartus mattered The geographic location of Tartus made it an important strategic position for Russia. Located at the very end of the Eastern Mediterranean it was in a region where NATO/western maritime presence was limited compared to the Western and Central parts of the Mediterranean. The closest maritime base of importance for NATO is located at Souda Bay, Crete, which is located at the transition from Central to Eastern Mediterranean. Operating from Tartus meant tha...
Read more

Russian forces in the Mediterranean - Wk49/2024

Image
Task Force Composition As reported by OSINT at the morning of Dec-07 Weekly Brief The Russian Mediterranean Task Force appears to have made a demonstration in force before the departure of the frigate Admiral Gorshkov to her homeport. On December 2nd and 3rd, the entire task force departed the port of Tartus for a large scale naval exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean. The exercise was supported by coastal defense batteries and naval aviation and focused on coastal defense and surface warfare. Given the involvement of several services and the availability of a dedicated simulated surface target, it appears that this exercise was planned and coordinated in advance. This contradicts the general narrative of Week 49 where it was stated that the Russian task force was evacuating the port of Tartus given the fast advance of Syrian rebels in Northern Syria. The behavior of the Russian task force corresponds with previous observed patterns during moments of crisis in the region. The Russian ...
Read more

Russian Naval deployments during the Ukraine War

Image
March 17, 2022 At least six Russian warships were observed near Odessa. The warships maintained their distance and operated on the horizon. March 16, 2022 Several vessels entered the port of Sevastopol including the patrol vessel Vasily Bykov. The Bykov was rumored to be struck and sunk by a Ukrainian grad MLRS barrage near Odessa on March 07 dough this was never officially confirmed.  The visual confirmation of the vessel entering the port of Sevastopol undamaged indicates that if an MLRS attack took place, it did not struck the Bykov. Ropucha class landing vessel Kondopoga of the northern fleet allegedly also entered the port of Sevastopol. March 15, 2022 Several Russian warships and landing ships were spotted on commercial satellite imagery during the morning hours. The vessels were heading in the direction of Odessa.  The vessel leading the formation of landing ships appears to be minesweeper with her sweeping array deployed. During the evening, around 90 missiles were rep...
Read more