Russia's Dnieper River Flotilla

On March 20th, 2024; Russia's Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of a so-called Dnieper Flotilla with a brigade of river boats by the end of 2024 [1]. The exact size and composition of the flotilla was not disclosed at this point, leaving a lot of room for speculation.

At this point the declaration to create a Dnieper Flotilla fits within Russia's plans to expand its military organization and further cement its presence in Ukraine and dominance of the Black Sea. 

Naval units and tactics

Current publications indicate that the Dnieper Flotilla will be equipped with smaller craft operated by Russia's naval forces such as assault and patrol boats and will not include larger vessels such as corvettes or patrol craft such as the Bykov class.

Assault and patrol boats can give the Dnieper Flotilla the necessary maneuverability in the maritime domain to protect the entrance of the Dnieper River as well as patrol the approaches of Crimea.

120 Nautical Mile range from the Kinburn Split

o far, Russian media did not mention the location from which the Dnieper Flotilla would operate from or if a specialized base will be constructed to accommodate it.

Should the Dnieper Flotilla operate from a general area where the Dnieper River flows in the Black Sea, the flotilla would be in position to protect and safeguard the approaches towards the Crimea and interdict Ukrainian USV operations which are normally launched from Odessa. Previous Ukrainian attacks with Magura-V5 maritime drones at the beginning of 2024 already claimed three Russian vessels sunk including a missile boat out the Tarantul class and a patrol boat of the Bykov class.

The larger vessels of the Black Sea Fleet lack the maneuverability to avoid Ukrainian drones as well as the capability of firing downwards with the main weapon systems once the drones have entered the minimum range.

Assault an patrol craft sit lower in the water and as such can engage the Magura-V5 drones at closer ranges while having speed and maneuverability to try and avoid incoming attacks. 

The Dnieper Flotilla will be able to interdict and prevent Ukrainian drone attacks against the Crimea. The goal will most likely be to force the Ukrainian drones to avoid the region where the Dnieper Flotilla patrols and take a longer route heading towards Crimea.
The longer route will decrease the range of the Magura-V5 drone and will make it doubtful if it can strike targets near Feodosia. The longer route will most likely not impede the control over the maritime drones as Ukraine has been able to operate them with real time telemetry in areas as far as Feodosia.

Raptor Class assault boats

Raptor class assault boats are typically used for amphibious raids and the fast insertion and extraction of small teams. Given the tasks mentioned, these boats will most likely be assigned to the Dnieper Flotilla for patrol and amphibious raids. With a speed of 24 knots and a range of 240 nautical miles with a speed of 20 knots, these boats are able to patrol large areas in good time and have a long endurance to remain on station.

These boats are armed with a variety of weapons such as the 7,62 mm 6P41 Pecheneg light machine gun and a 12.7 mm Kord heavy machinegun. Raptor boats can also carry eight 9M113 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles.

Their speed, maneuverability and armament allow the Raptor boats to be an effective counter against Ukrainian maritime drones.

 

Shmell class gunboat

Older but more heavily armed then the Raptor class are the gunboats of the Shmell class. Commissioned between 1967 and 1972, only a handful of these boats remain in service with the Russian Navy. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, several of the remaining Shmell class gunboats were transferred to the Black Sea from the Caspian Sea. Presumed to be used as support vessels for Russian troops advancing along the Azov Sea coastline, these boats did not yet see any combat according to information available by OSINT sources.

Speed and range are reported as similar to the Raptor class assault boats. 

Armaments include a 76 mm D-56TS canon with 150 rounds, a 140 mm BM-14-17 rocket launcher, four 30 mm BP-30 Plamya grenade launchers, two 14,5mm machine guns and one 7,62mm light machine gun. 

Coastal artillery and Naval Infantry support

The Dnieper Flotilla will be further strengthened by coastal artillery and a Naval Infantry formation [2]. The coastal artillery will include the wheeled 130mm A-222 "Bereg" self-propelled artillery gun capable of hitting targets moving with speeds of 185km/h according to Russian sources. The artillery guns will be used to engaged enemy motor boats and landing craft.

Russia only operates 36 Bereg self-propelled artillery guns which would be enough to form two artillery regiments of 18 pieces each. While this is the theoretical upper limit it seems more likely that Russia will operate only a singe artillery regiment with having the remaining artillery guns in reserve for spare parts.

According to military expert Captain 1st Rank Vasily Dandykin, the Dnieper flotilla will comprise river minesweepers, assault boats and landing craft. The Naval Infantry unit will most likely be a separate battalion sized unit. 

Being a separate unit, the naval infantry attached to the Dnieper Flotilla will presumably fall outside the command structure of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade based in the Crimea. Its tasks will vary from coastal defense to amphibious raids.