Russian forces in the Mediterranean - Wk13/2023

Task Force Composition

As reported by OSINT at the morning of Mar-30

Weekly Brief
Three vessels of the Northern Fleet have entered the Mediterranean in what will most likely be a Syrian Express run transporting military equipment and munitions from the Middle East towards Russia, most likely via Saint Petersburg.
Being forced to take the longer route due to Ukrainian drone attacks in the Black Sea, an increase in shipping is needed to secure a steady flow of arms across the Syrian Express.

Striking is the fact that frigate Admiral Grigorovich was used to escort the civilian merchants used as weapon runners but did not linger around the Strait of Gibraltar to escort the Northern Fleet detachment. If this pattern becomes the new norm, then the presence of Russian surface vessels in the Western Mediterranean can be used as a marker to indicate the passage of weapon runners.

A detachment of the Pacific Fleet, composed of Slava class cruiser Varyag and Udaloy class frigate Marshal Shaposnikov have left the Arabian Sea and headed into the Red Sea. The vessels are visiting the port of Massawa in Eritrea but will most likely pass into the Mediterranean next week.
Both vessels will most likely stay for three to four months before heading back to Vladivostok. Most likely they will depart together with the Improved Kilo class submarine Ufa.

Daily Events
March 24
The AIS signal of fleet oiler Kola was observed west of the Strait of Gibraltar and heading towards the Mediterranean [1]. Based on the time and speed of the vessel, the passage will take place during the night to prevent visual observations.

March 25
Satellite imagery of the port of Tartus revealed the presence of frigate Admiral Grigorovich, Improved Kilo class submarine Ufa, Steregushchy class corvette Merkury, Buyan-M class corvette Orekhovo-Zuyevo, Moma class intelligence collection vessel Kildin and fleet oiler Kama of the Kaliningradneft class [2].

March 28
Landing vessel Ivan Grenn and fleet oiler Kola entered the Sicilian Channel and were observed heading east [3].

Satellite imagery showed both vessels together with the Ropucha class landing vessel Otrakovsky 32 nautical miles north of the Italian island of Pantelleria [4].

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