Tsirkon testing summer 2021

Summary

Currently, only one Tsirkon launch took place with the frigate RFS Admiral Gorshkov conducting a flight test on July 19. This launch was not part of the state trails. New NOTAMs for a possible testing period are in effect between August 20 to 25 but these are more likely related to a new test launch of the nuclear powered 9M730 Burevestnik missile.

State trails are expected to start during the summer though at this point, the tests will start in August instead of the previously reported period at the end of July. Through the use of NOTAMs, at least two possible testing periods were identified during the second half of July, but no launches took place in both periods. This could either be caused by bad information provided to Russian press agencies or unexpected problems regarding the missile itself. Several additional NOTAMs were in effect throughout August but so far, no new launches were reported.

The first upcoming launch has so far been reported against a target located on the maximum range of the missile yet the type of target, stationary land or stationary at sea, is yet to be verified.

The state test will presumably also involve a target simulating an enemy aircraft carrier.

The first test launch from a submarine, the Yasen class nuclear attack submarine RFS Severodvinsk is delayed and will now to take place at the beginning of September instead of the end of August.

Daily Events

July 12

An unconfirmed source reported to RIA Novosti that state trails of the Tsirkon hypersonic missile will start before the end of July. the firing will be done by the frigate RFS Admiral Gorshkov which will target land and sea targets [1] [2].

July 17

A NOTAM for the White Sea, Barents Sea and the area west of Novaya Zemlya was given which will be in effect between July 21 to 24. It is possible that this NOTAM will be for the Tsrikon test launches [3].

July 18

TASS agency announces that state trails of the Tsirkon hypersonic missile will begin in August with the first launch of the state trail taking place from the frigate RFS Admiral Gorshkov [4]. The frigate reportedly will perform four launches. 

During the second half of August, test launches from the nuclear attack submarine RFS Severodvinsk. These launches are part of flight trails of the missile with the first launch taking place from a surfaced position against a surface target. Presumably, this means a land target, rather than a naval target.

July 19

TASS agency reports that the frigate RFS Admiral Gorshkov has launched a Tsirkon hypersonic missile against a surface target at a distance of 350km [5] [6]. The missile reportedly reached Mach 7 during the flight and struck a target located on the coast of the Barents Sea.

Video of the launch shows the missile being launched from a vertical launch cell with a top cap stabilizing and pointing the missile. The cap is then ejected of the missile following the ignition of the main engine that propels the missile directly upwards [7] [8] [9]. Though the images of the missile itself remain blurry, they are of a better quality compared to previous launches, allowing for a better view of the silhouette [10].

Official communication by the Russian Ministry of Defense specifically mentioned "Flight tests of the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile continue" [11]. This could be a clear reference that the launch was not part of the official state trails [12].

July 20

Both TASS agency and RIA Novosti announced that a new test launch of the Tsirkon missile will take place in the near future [13]. TASS agency reports that the next launch will see the missile being launched against a naval target at the maximum range of the missile [14]. RIA Novosti however claims that the naval target will simulate a enemy aircraft carrier located at the maximum range of the missile and in an environment with complex jamming [15]. No official confirmation about the type of target was provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

July 25

A notice to air was given for the period of July 28 to July 30. The closed zone is located in the Artic Region, going east from the Barents Sea. The NOTAM could be for a possible Tsirkon launch with a test flight for the maximum range of the missile [16] [17].

No Tsirkon launches were reported during the time period of July 21-24 as hinted on July 17 when several NOTAMs were issued in for the Barents and White Seas.

July 31

No Tsirkon launches were reported between July 28 to 30.

August 06

According to an undisclosed source, the first test launch with a Tsirkon missile from the nuclear submarine Severodvisnk will take place at the end of August. Testing is suppose to be completed before the White Sea starts to freeze [18].

Several new NOTAMs were reported at the White Sea and could possibly indicate a new missile launch between August 10 and 12. There is some speculation that a Tsirkon or 9M730 Burevestnik missile test is imminent [19]. However, several vessels of the Northern Fleet are currently engaged in large scale naval exercises in the Barents Sea so the possibility remains that these NOTAMs are for regular follow up naval exercises.

August 14

Pictures surfaced on Telegam showing damage to the decommissioned tug boat MB-38 at Severodvinsk [20] [21]. The vessel has three holes in the side which are reportedly caused by impacting Tsirkon missiles [22].

Though no recent Tsrikon launches were reported, it is most likely that the vessel was struck either during previous test launches or damaged by artillery fire during a gunnery exercise.

Further debate about these pictures seem to indicate that the tug was struck by regular anti-ship cruise missiles [23] given the angel of the impact [24] and the similar holes observed on previous missile tests [25]. The ship was allegedly struck by missiles which head a concrete warhead instead of explosives [26], which explains why no damage related to fire and explosions are visible.

August 17

Several NAVWARN and NOTAMs were issued for the White Sea, Kanin Peninsula and the Cheshkaya Bay area. NAVWARN are in effect between August 20-24th with the NOTAM only announced for the 24th [27].

August 18

A new NOTAM has announced for the area west of Novaya Zemlya which will be in effect between August 20th to 25th. The NOTAM most likely is in anticipation of a new 9M730 Burevestnik test that is rumored to take place in this region [28].

August 24

Tsirkon trails for the submarine RFS Severodvinsk are delayed and will now scheduled to start at the beginning of September [29] [30].

The frequent delays give credit to the idea that the missile is still under development and not yet ready for a successful flight.

September 03

New naval warnings were issued for the region southwest of Novaya Zemlya which report rocket and artillery fire. The warnings seem to be more related to Northern Fleet naval exercises, rather than a Burevestnik or Tsirkon launch [31].