Evolution of the Russian Navy in the near future

As 2018 came to an end, three new naval ships were commissioned into the Russian Navy. On December 16 the Baltic Fleet commissioned the first of the Project 22800 guided missile corvette RFS Mytishchi. On December 20, the Black Sea Fleet commissioned the Project 22160 patrol ship RFS Vasily Bykov and on December 25 the Pacific Fleet commissioned RFS Gromkiy, the sixth ship of the Project 20380 Steregushchy class corvette.

Tough this rapid pace of commissioning warships was more the result of coincidence instead of careful and deliberate planning, it nevertheless showed the current evolution of the Russian Navy as a whole. First, Russia is showing itself committed to modernize its fleets with large amounts of smaller but potent warships. The RFS Mytishchi is the first of a batch of 20 corvettes to be build while Project 22160 involves two batches of three patrol vessels. The Steregushchy class envisions a total of 24 ships to be build with the first batches to be build for the Baltic and Pacific fleets. The absence of construction of large scale warships such as cruisers and destroyers indicate that the Russian Navy will evolve in the coming years from a blue water navy into a green water navy.

Steregushchy class corvette - one of the main warships within the future Russian Navy

A second evolution with the Russian Navy is the fact that most of the new warships will be on a higher technological level compared the warships which they are to replace. Perhaps the most important evolution is the reliance of most Russian warships upon the Kalbr cruise missile which are installed upon most of the Russian warships. So even with Russia transitioning into a green water navy, the new modernized Russian fleets are expected to retain or even increase their combat capabilities.

Implications of a green water navy

Russia's shipbuilding programs are currently fixed upon constructing new warships in corvette and frigate sizes while efforts are being made to modernize old destroyers and cruisers. Nevertheless, the absence of construction of new destroyers and cruisers means that Russia risks losings its blue water navy capabilities once its current destroyers and cruisers are retired from service due to old age. At that point, Russia will be left with a green water navy which is capable to project naval power in the near seas but lacks the sea going capabilities to project power on a sustainable basis on the world oceans. At the maritime level, Russia would thus transform from a global actor into a regional power with control and influence in its near seas.

This transition does not mean that Russia will need to fundamentally alter and reshape its maritime strategy or geopolitical objectives. Over the past years, the Russian navy was mainly focused in maintaining its influence over its near seas such as the Baltic and Black Seas. Deployments by its aircraft carrier over the past decade were too few and irregular in time for Russia to build up a credible deterrence in the field of naval aviation. The same can be observed by the deployments of its missile cruisers. Russia's global reach and maritime deterrence mainly comes from its nuclear submarines of which several new ones are being build in order the maintain its current combat capabilities.

The surface units of the Russian Fleets were mostly deployed in the near seas with the exception of well planned port visits, international exercises and the participation of its warships in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. These missions can still be completed by its new generations of frigates and as such the transition into a green water navy will not affect Russia in this regard. Operations in the eastern Mediterranean, a region where Russia seeks to maintain its influence and control, are still possible with frigates and corvettes. Russia's naval base at the port of Tartus gives Russia the possibility to sustain a permanent presence in the region. 

The biggest change in the transition into a green water navy will be in the combat capabilities of ships on an individual basis. Frigates and corvettes, being smaller then cruisers and destroyers, have less space for the installment of weapon systems. As such, the firepower of frigates and corvettes is less then those of cruisers and destroyers. On the operational and tactical level, Russia can however take steps, and indeed has taken steps, to increase the capabilities of its new warships. New technologies in sensor and weapon systems allow the Russian warships to have more advanced capabilities compared to their larger counterparts within the Russian Navy. As such, the decrease in combat capabilities on an individual level is minimized as much as possible. At the same time, the large amount of warships being build also means that Russian fleets can draw on a larger amount of operational ships to be deployed at once. Russia would thus be able to create a more stable and sustainable deployment in its near seas. 

A third change will be on the doctrinal level and the cooperation between naval and ground stationed forces. By operating in the near sea regions, Russian warships are thus expected to operate more in regions that are covered by ground based missile units and ground based aviation. Even though new Russian warships my be equipped with less weapon systems compared to cruisers and destroyers, the presence of ground based forces that can support offensive and defensive operations of naval forces will be an important force multiplier and could become a cornerstone in Russia's maritime doctrine once its shifts into a green water navy.

Impact on the Russian Fleets

Most importantly, within the area of operations for the Black Sea fleet the transition towards a green water navy will have a limited impact. Russia has a large margin in naval capabilities within the Black Sea compared to the other nations bordering this region. The treaty of Montreux furthermore limits the access of foreign naval powers into the Black Sea fleet. Unless Turkey changes its neutral stance in this mater and allows for the influx of several NATO warships above the limits set for in the treaty, the current balance of power within the Black Sea favors Russia. Russia can also count on airfields and missile batteries in Southern Russia and the Crimea to further increase its capabilities in this region.

Russia military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean become a frequent issue

The close proximity of the eastern Mediterranean means that the Black Sea Fleet will be the prime fleet to  be used for operations in this theater. A Russian green water navy in this region will be on par with the other naval forces in this region, with the exception of the US 6th Fleet which is composed of larger warships. The Russian naval base at Tartus, Syria, provides the Russian navy with a supply point that can be used to sustain and expand the Russian presence in the eastern Mediterranean.

A potential adversary confronting the Black Sea Fleet would be Turkey which is currently in the progress of expanding its maritime capabilities. Turkish maritime ambitions are mostly aimed to expand its influence in the eastern Mediterranean and secure its position in this region. Currently the Turkish naval programs envision the construction of frigates and corvettes meaning that the Turkish navy is expected to have equal capabilities as the Black Sea Fleet.

In the Baltic region no major differences in the naval balance of power is to be expected. The limited geographical space in this region is more a limiting factor for cruisers and destroyers who are more suited to operate in large open waters and deploy a layered defense over larger distances. The Baltic Fleet is currently already a green water navy and future developments will thus not affect the Baltic Fleet. Russia’s potential adversaries also deploy green water navies. The only advances that can be made in this region will depend on the development and upgrade of sensor and weapon systems as well as a closer cooperation with land based forces which can act as force enablers.

The northern fleet will be most affected by the transition into a green water navy. The northern fleet currently has the most ocean going ships allocated to it such as the aircraft carrier RFS Kuznetsov and the nuclear powered missile cruiser RFS Pyotr Velikiy. The task of the northern fleet is to operate in the Arctic region and the Atlantic. The loss of ocean going ships will mean that the Northern Fleet will lose the capability to create a threat against transatlantic trade routes through the use of surface action groups. Russia however is transitioning its focus towards the Arctic Region and a Northern Fleet composed of frigates and corvettes will be better suited to patrol and project power into this region, especially in combination with the further expanse of coastal infrastructure such as airfields and small ports currently constructed or planned by the Russian government.

RFS Pyotr Velikiy - The ships hull is already 32 years old

Transitioning into a green water navy is expected to reduce Russia’s position in the Pacific theater. The expansion of the Chinese Navy with new types of destroyers and aircraft carriers is followed by naval expansion programs in South Korea and Japan. So far, Russia has been unable to match the pace of naval expansion of these three countries. Not only in numbers but also on an individual basis are Russian naval capabilities less then those of the Chinese, Korean and Japanese warships who are all focused an building blue water navy warships, most notably in destroyers armed with large vertical missile launch systems. So far there are no indications that this trend will change in the near future. Russia’s naval capabilities in this region will become relatively lesser compared to the other actors in this region and as such will most likely force Russia to focus on defensive capabilities rather then try to compete against the increase Chinese, Korean and Japanese power projection capabilities.

In conclusion we can expect Russia to lose its global maritime reach through the loss of large surface warships. The new generation of Russian warships however will be able to offer Russia to project naval forces and influence maritime events in its near seas with the exception of the Pacific theater where Russia is lagging behind Chinese, Korean and Japanese naval expansion programs.