Russian forces in the Mediterranean - Wk11/2023

Task Force Composition

As reported by OSINT at the morning of Mar-16


Weekly Brief
A significant change in operations was observed halfway the week with two weapon runners and a civilian oiler departing the Mediterranean through the Strait of Gibraltar. Weapons runners Sparta IV and Ursa Major, together with oiler Yaz usually operate between Syria and Southern Russia but are now observed heading to Saint Petersburg instead.

Most likely, these vessels are deviating from their well  established patterns as a result of the growing threat of Ukrainian drones to Russian shipping in the Black Sea. Given the fact that all three vessels are important in sustaining Russia's war efforts, loss of these vessels would grind weapon transports and transfer of fuel to a halt.
The deviation of all three vessels to head towards Saint Petersburg is also taking place as new leadership is appointed to the Russian Navy and could be an indication that the new leadership is making a more balanced decision between the risks of moving through the Black Sea and the risk of having a longer supply line with slower deliveries.

Daily Events
March 14
Weapons runners Sparta IV and Ursa Major left the Mediterranean through the Strait of Gibraltar together with the oiler Yaz. The vessels were visually observed during the early evening [1].

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