Black Sea amphibious lift decreased by civilian needs

On July 11th, two Ropucha class landing vessels were used in a civilian role ferrying civilian traffic across the Kerch Strait. This use of amphibious landing vessels breaks a pattern, namely the use of these vessels to transport heavy military equipment from Novorossiysk towards Sevastopol in support of Russian military logistics for the troops fighting in southern Ukraine.

It also raises questions with regards to the Kerch Bridge. If civilian traffic needs to be diverted and transported across the Kerch Strait by amphibious landing vessels, could this indicate that the bridge is facing severe limitations in the amount of traffic it can support?

Background

Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Navy significantly increased the amphibious lift capacity of the Black Sea Fleet. This increase was done by transferring three Ropucha class landing vessels of both the Northern Fleet as the Baltic Fleet. These six vessels entered the Black Sea on February 8th, 2022 and have remained in the Black Sea ever since.

The entrance of these six amphibious landing vessels increased Russia's amphibious lift capabilities in the Black Sea from one battalion towards three battalions with the Tapir/Alligator class vessels already present in the Black Sea providing the lift needed for combat support units.

This increased amphibious lift capacity should have been sufficient to transport the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade. During the first weeks of the Russian invasion, the Russian Navy was engaged in several amphibious demonstrations against the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, effectively pinning the 28th Mechanized Brigade at Odessa defending potential landing beaches until territorial units were raised and trained to take over the defense of Odessa.

Shift in usage

As the war progressed and the Naval Infantry became fully committed on land, the use of an amphibious capacity shifted from demonstrations to logistical supply runs to support Russia's advance in Southern Ukraine. Several amphibious vessels were used to deliver supplies and material via the port of Berdyansk.

These supply runs eventually culminated in the Ukrainian attack against Berdyansk on March 24th, 2022 when Ukraine launched a Tochka ballistic missile against the port. The missile sank the Tapir/Alligator class landing vessel Saratov, believed to be loaded with ammunition, and damaged the Ropucha class landing vessels Ceasar Kunikov and Novocherkassk.

Ever since the attack against Berdyansk, the amphibious landing vessels remained on the background of naval operations in the Black Sea. This however changed with the bombing of the Kerch Bridge on October 8th, 2022. The bombing destroyed one span used for vehicles and damaged the nearby railway span. The damage was sufficient to halt the use of the Kerch Bridge for the transport of military equipment and supplies from Russia towards the Crimea.

At this point, the amphibious warships were observed on several transport runs from Novorossiysk towards Sevastopol in order to keep both the Crimea as the Russian forces in southern Ukraine supplied.

Though the total amphibious lift capacity at hand in the Black Sea Fleet was impressive, the slow speed of these vessels compared to land transportation by truck and railway meant that these vessels would only be able to transport a minimum of supplies needed to support the war effort.

Civilian use

On July 11th, Russian sources reported a further reduction in amphibious lift capacity with the Ropucha class landing vessels Kaliningrad and Olenegorsky Gornyak being used to transport civilian traffic across the Kerch Strait.

The use of both vessels as civilian vessels raises several questions, especially with regards to the Kerch Bridge. Earlier it was reported that several spans in the Kerch Bridge had severe cracks, raising doubts about the stability of the bridge.

The use of two Ropucha class vessels as civilian ferries seem to indicate that the Kerch Bridge is at its limits of transportation that it can (safely?) carry. Both vessels operate between the Crimea and mainland Russia, thereby decreasing the volume of traffic on the Kerch Bridge.

A more severe result of both vessels being used for civilian operations is the decrease in amphibious lift capacity available to transport heavy military equipment towards Sevastopol. Each Ropucha class is able to transport 10 main battle tanks or 12 BTR Infantry Fighting Vehicles or 500 tons of cargo.

Conclusion

With Ukraine continuing to attack Russian forces in southern Ukraine, the sustainability of military logistics through the Crimea is paramount to keep Russian forces supplied. Diverting two Ropucha class landing vessels for civilian use will leave a mark on this sustainability. On the one hand, it aids in decreasing the burden placed on the Kerch Bridge by civilian transportation, a vital issue if the stability of the bridge is indeed in question. On the other hand, it diverts a significant transport capacity of heavy military equipment away from the Russian armed forces fighting in southern Ukraine.

Given the very recent use of both vessels as civilian vessels, it remains important to monitor these two vessels. A continued deployment for civilian use could confirm that the Kerch Bridge faces severe stability problems.